The Impact Analysis for Planning model (IMPLAN) was used to estimate socioeconomic impacts resulting from BLM management actions under the alternatives. IMPLAN is a regional economic model that provides a mathematical accounting of the flow of money, goods, and services through a region’s economy. The model provides estimates of how a specific economic activity translates into jobs and income for the region. It includes the “ripple effect” (or “multiplier effect”) of changes in sectors that may not be directly affected by management actions, but are linked to industries that are directly affected. In IMPLAN, these ripple effects are termed indirect impacts (for changes in industries that sell inputs to the industries that are directly affected) and induced impacts (for changes in household spending as household income increases or decreases due to the changes in production).
For example, an increase in oil and gas production implies more money would be spent on the maintenance of existing oil and gas equipment and/or new oil and gas equipment; this, in turn, implies more money would be spent in sectors that provide inputs to oil and gas support services or equipment sectors. These production and consumption or “input-output” relationships allow IMPLAN to estimate the indirect and induced impacts based on changes in production that may result from an alternative. Appendix X provides technical assumptions and additional information about the IMPLAN model.
Impacts to social conditions associated with each of the alternatives were compared to existing conditions and trends in the Planning Area to establish a context for the impacts. Social impacts were classified broadly into three categories: impacts on population; impacts on housing and community services; and impacts on custom, culture, and social trends.
Assumptions used in this impact analysis include the following:
Economic conditions, especially jobs, labor earnings, and economic output, will continue to drive population growth or decline in the Planning Area.
Any population change that may reasonably be associated with the alternatives will likely be due to changes in employment opportunities.
Federal, state, and local taxes will continue to be collected on minerals produced in the Planning Area.
The pace and timing of economic development in the Planning Area will continue to depend on many factors beyond the management actions of the BLM. Because the pace of development in the Planning Area is driven largely by external forces such as worldwide economic trends and technological change, it is difficult to predict. Therefore, the economic impact analysis—which influences the social impact analysis because of the link between employment opportunities and population—assumes a relatively constant rate of development. Actual social and economic impacts may differ if the rate of development changes.